09 May 2025 – By James Bayley
As baby boomers exit and younger consumers prove elusive, the US wine industry faces a reset, not a ruin. The latest SVB report highlights challenges, yes, but also green shoots, opportunities for reinvention and surprising success stories among agile producers.
The 2025 Silicon Valley Bank State of the US Wine Industry Report, one of the most closely followed annual analyses in the sector, paints a nuanced picture: sobering in parts, certainly, but far from apocalyptic. Based on proprietary financial data from SVB clients, a 600-respondent industry survey and trusted retail metrics, the report is focused squarely on the US market, but its implications may ripple further.
“This is a correction caused by declining demand instead of overproduction,” the report states, “but change always creates opportunities for those willing to understand the risks and capable of charting a course toward success.”
After three decades of expansion, the US wine market is in a new phase, one defined by shifting demographics and consumer values, not by falling standards or declining quality. If anything, the wines have never been better.
The generational baton passes
At the heart of the reset is a well-understood demographic fact: baby boomers, historically the most loyal and high-spending wine consumers, are steadily ageing out of the market. The SVB report calculates that 2.6 million will exit annually, rising to 4.4 million by 2037.
This isn’t cause for despair, says SVB founder Rob McMillan. “Although this prediction is informed, it’s not a simple equation,” he writes. Instead, he advocates for actively cultivating the 30 to 45-year-old cohort, consumers who still drink alcohol but are less committed to wine than previous generations.
SVB’s data shows that preferences are evolving, not vanishing. Prosecco, white blends and varietals like Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Grigio are gaining traction, particularly with younger and more casual drinkers. These wines are approachable, affordable and often lower in alcohol, qualities that align well with modern wellness-conscious habits.
A market of two speeds
Though average growth is flat, some producers are outperforming dramatically. The top 25% of premium wineries saw 22% revenue growth in 2024, while the bottom quartile declined by 16%. These results, taken from anonymised financial submissions to SVB, suggest how brand strength, direct-to-consumer models and agile marketing may be paying off.
Wineries focused on tasting rooms and club sales are still facing headwinds, especially after years of Covid disruption and changes in travel behaviour. But even here, there are signs of adaptation. Average per-visitor sales remain strong, and some regions, such as Virginia, reported very positive years.
